Oh, so now it's the out of work

average American's fault that

the recovery is not happening

Reluctant Shoppers Hold Back Recovery
BY ANN ZIMMERMAN AND SARA MURRAY

Major retailers reported that American consumers are continuing to hunker down, casting a cloud over the durability of the U.S. recovery and underscoring the importance of overseas demand in restoring the world economy to health.

Retailers across the spectrum provided foreboding reports. Discounter Target Corp. reported that sales at stores open at least a year were down 6.2% from a year earlier in the quarter ended Aug. 1, while luxury purveyor Saks Inc. reported a 15.5% drop in same-store sales over the past quarter as shoppers stuck to buying basics. Building-supply chain Home Depot Inc. saw total sales drop 9.1% ( don't read more it crap bs)

The International Forecaster

This So Called Recovery Is Going Nowhere
August 12 2009

Summary: trillions more dollars in bailout to keep the bubble alive, Inflation guaranteed for Asia, Stock Market is again highly leveraged, Trillions in more injections wont work, No way to reverse this reversal of fortune for the economy, Developed nations seen as having dug their own graves, Saga of Pat Kiley

The Fed’s Wall Street bubble, as we forecast in January, will need at least $2 trillion more in 2010, if the economy is to just stay on an even keel. The massive debt liquidation particularly in banking, Wall Street and in insurance demands many more trillions of dollars. $23.4 trillion is not going to be enough. Presently the Fed is in the process of monetizing $2 trillion in Treasuries, Agency paper, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and collateralized debt obligations held by lenders. It is a secret what the Fed is paying for this almost worthless paper. Is it any wonder the public has lost trust and confidence in these players and our government?
In order to escape from this global expansion of debt from government, corporations, banking, Wall Street and even state indebtedness, the bubble has to be maintained. The longer it lasts the worse will be the collapse when it bursts. Does anyone really believe that this can continue indefinitely?
People talk about robust inflationary environments in China, Asia and emerging markets In America the Fed’s game of lowering interest rates and increasing money and credit and monetizing paper will end over the next two years, maybe three. What is already in the system guarantees inflation.
Many believe American re-flation boosts real estate values. Not a chance. The recovery is not going anywhere. Americans are starting to save and pay down debt, and that means eventually consumption, as a percentage of GDP will fall to the long-term mean of 64.5%.
The stock market and major market players are again highly leveraged even after 50% gains. They do not seem to understand that the sustained injection of trillions of dollars in money and credit is not going to work. It is not creating anything. Wild speculation is fine; it’s the leverage that kills. As a broker I never had a margin account. The market is not discounting a rosy future, but the players do not understand that. Prices are simply disconnected from reality. Short covering and the reversal of derivative positions cannot go on indefinitely. Market performance is led by second and third tier companies that are in serious positions, some on the edge of bankruptcy. This is a very frustrating but temporary phenomenon. You are short failing companies, and good companies languish. This is one of the unpredictable parts of the market. All we can say is that current stock market action is a reflection of the current dysfunctional financial chaos that we are trapped in. Mis-pricing is legion. All we can say is it is not going to work. Your only alternative is to back in the safety of gold and silver related assets.
The same elements that were responsible for the collapse of the market in 2000 are at work today. Incidentally we recommended selling in the second week of April, two weeks after the top. Only 2% of analysts accompanied us. Then again, we called the top at 14,100. That element was interest rate carry trades. The players are taking advantage of the ability to borrow cheap dollars, yen and euros to buy other higher yielding currencies, which in turn strengthens their currencies, making their exports uncompetitive. South Africa and Turkey are such examples. Thus, currency appreciation caused by differing interest rates is reigniting third world countries. Free trade and globalization are having some unintended consequences. The dollar is headed down and at the G-20 meeting in London on September 4-5; the US will ask China and others to cut it more slack, because they can ( Learn more at )

Worst Performance Ever

For Back-To-School Sales

Mish's

There are two things retailers thought they could always count on, a robust Christmas shopping season and strong back-to-school sales. However, the Christmas fairy tale shattered last year and back-to-school sales are in the midst of their first ever collapse this year.

Inquiring minds are reading Retailers See Back-to-School Sales Slowing.


Halfway through the back-to-school shopping season, retail professionals are predicting the worst performance for stores in more than a decade, yet another sign that consumers are clinging to every dollar.

Stock analysts at Citigroup are predicting a decline in back-to-school sales for the first time since they began tracking the figures in 1995. They estimate August and September sales at stores open for at least a year — known as same-store sales — will fall 3 to 4 percent, compared with an increase of nearly 1 percent in the same period last year.

The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expects the average family with school-age children to spend nearly 8 percent less this year than last. And ShopperTrak, a research company, predicted customer traffic would be down 10 percent from a year ago.

“This is going to be the worst back-to-school season in many, many years,” said Craig F. Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a retailing consultant firm.

This year’s frugality may hark back to an earlier age, but consumers are using up-to-the-minute tools in their determination to save money. They are scouring the Internet for coupons. They are planning their shopping trips around e-mail alerts that tip them to bargains.

One mother, Clarissa Nassar, signed up for alerts about sales on a Web site called Shop It To Me. When she saw that her daughter’s favorite brand, Baby Phat, was on sale at Macy’s, she promptly drove to the department store to shop for school clothes.

“I got an alert for the cutest tie-dye pink top,” said Ms. Nassar, a mother of two, Mikayla, 7, and Joseph, 3, in Johnstown, N.Y. “Originally it was $36 and I got it for $9.75.”

Executives at Google said Internet searches for back-to-school bargains had soared this year. Searches for coupons are up 40 percent over last year and searches for buy-one-get-one-free deals are up 30 percent.
The article notes that Staples lowered prices on 250 back-to-school items in an attempt to compete with Walmart. With that, we can safely add Staples to the ever growing list of Peas In The Deflationary Pod.

In a flashback to the past, coupon sales are soaring. Anyone remember their parents clipping coupons? Except perhaps for huge discounts, how many routinely did it 3 years ago, two years ago?

Some thought last season's Christmas sales were bad. This year is going to be a disaster.