A FUTURIST SCENARIO,
By Fred W. Riggs
first part
Information from Jeffrey Winters about his research into "zonal capitalism" in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries (citation) opened my eyes to a potential future scenario for the world that I had not previously imagined. However, it fits into patterns of change I have been thinking and writing about, putting them into a new focus. This is a first effort to spell out some of these ideas for discussion with colleagues in the hopes that some useful notions may result.
1. Zonal Capitalism. Winters outlines the structure of what he calls a "second generation zone" in the design of industrial parks or estates -- these are enclaves in a third world country like Indonesia which maximize opportunities for investors to accumulate profits in the production of manufactures (from shoes, fabrics and garments to cars, furniture and electronics) for which demand on a global level is escalating while costs can be reduced maximally by minimizing social and environmental accountability. During the period from 1989 to 1994, the number of these estates in Indonesia has escalated from about a half-dozen to almost 100, while at the same time their capital costs have shifted almost completely from the state to private capital. The trends apparent during this 5-year period seem destined to continue in Indonesia, and parallels in neighboring countries, as well in widely scattered parts of the third world, appear likely to mushroom, with implications that stagger the imagination.
These industrial estates are self-contained zones, surrounded by formidable walls, that can be entered only through a single controlled gateway that insulates them from their surroundings and heighten the possibility for owner/managers to provide optimal facilities for investors to establish productive facilities that maximize their profits. What I find most disturbing about this development is the implication that, instead of industrialization flowing from the development of democratic national states and reinforcing their vigor, it can also occur in a perverse way that undermines political and administrative development and reduces the viability of states as organized communities. This reverses the trends of modernity as they have evolved during the last two or three centuries and as we had hoped they would develop in the new states formed out of the collapsed possessions of the great industrial empires of the Western world. If my fears are well founded and a mushrooming of industrial estates throughout the world really occurs, a highly negative global trend may well undermine many of the proudest achievements of modernity. ( learn more at )