On the Edge with Max Keiser - 31 July 2009 (3/3)

On the Edge with Max Keiser - 31 July 2009 (2/3)

On the Edge with Max Keiser - 31 July 2009 (1/3)

Max, getting right

Statistical Deceptions
Posted By admin On July 30, 2009 @ 9:44 am

Paul Craig Roberts Infowars

Last week on NPR a professor in the Sloan School of Management at MIT explained that what is really at stake in the health care bill is the US government’s ability to borrow. In other words, the bill is about cutting health care costs, not about providing hard-pressed Americans with health care.
The professor said that if we didn’t get health care costs under control, in 30 years the US government would not be able to sell Treasury bonds. The reported unemployment rate is itself deceptive as it no longer includes discouraged workers who have been unemployed for more than a year.
It is not at all clear that the Treasury will be able to sell its debt instruments in 30 months, and it has nothing to do with health care costs. The Treasury debt marketing problem has to do with two back-to-back US fiscal year budgets, each with a $2 trillion deficit. The size of the US deficit exceeds in these troubled times the supply of world savings available to fund the US government’s wars, bailouts and stimulus plans. If the Federal Reserve has to monetize the Treasury’s new borrowings by creating demand deposits for the Treasury (printing money), America’s foreign creditors might flee the dollar.
The professor didn’t seem to know anything about this and gave Washington 30 more years before the proverbial hits the fan.
One looks in vain to the US financial media for accurate economic information. Currently, Wall Street, the White House, and the media are hyping a new sign of economic recovery–“surging” June home sales. John Williams at shadowstats.com predicted this latest reporting deception.
Here is the way Williams explains how statistics can produce false signs of recovery.
The economy has been contracting for so long that a plateauing of the falloff in home sales compared to the previous time period’s more rapid contraction can appear like a gain.
The Census Bureau itself notes that the reported 11% increase in June home sales might be illusory. The reporting agency says that the gain is not statistically meaningful at a 90% confidence interval and that “the Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.”[PDF]
Williams explains other data distortions likely to create false hopes and lead to investment losses. Financial stresses from the current state of the economy have changed behavior. This means that normal seasonal adjustments to statistical data can result in misleading information.
For example, the recent decline that was reported in seasonally-adjusted new unemployment claims was a result of the normal adjustments for the retooling of auto lines that did not, in fact, take place to the normal extent due to the bankruptcies and uncertainties. Adding in seasonal adjustments that did not in fact take place artificially reduced the unemployment claims.
Williams warns that after a period of contraction, new monthly or quarterly figures are being compared to prior periods of collapsing activity. “Improvements” are thus artifacts of the prior collapse and not signs of economic rebound.
The “Birth-Death Model” is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the net of the non-reported jobs lost by failed businesses (deaths) and new jobs created by start-up companies (births). Williams explains why the model understates job loss during periods of contraction. The modeling on which the birth-death adjustment is based consists primarily of periods of economic growth when there are more non-reported start-up jobs than non-reported job losses from business failures. The BLS model came up with a monthly adjustment of 75,000 new jobs added to the reported number. That means an adjustment factor of 900,000 new jobs added to the reported payroll jobs number each year.
However, during economic contraction, such as the current one, it is wrong to assume that new start-ups are creating 75,000 jobs each month more than are being lost to business failures. Thus the job losses are understated by the 900,000 upside birth-death adjustment and by the absence of a downside adjustment to estimate the jobs lost as a result of failed companies that cease to report.
The reported unemployment rate is itself deceptive as it no longer includes discouraged workers who have been unemployed for more than a year. These long-term discouraged workers are simply erased from the rolls of the unemployed.
The Consumer Price Index no longer measures a constant standard of living and is not comparable to pre-Clinton periods. During the 1990s, the CPI ceased to be based on a weighted fixed assortment. The principle of substitution was introduced. For example, under the old measure, if the price of steak rose, the CPI rose. Under the new measure, if the price of steak rises, the index switches to hamburger on the assumption that consumers substitute hamburger for steak.
Consumer confidence typically is swayed by “good news” hype. The drops in the Conference Board’s and the University of Michigan’s measures of consumer confidence in July suggest that Americans are becoming inured to recovery hype and are realizing that the government and the media lie about the economy just as they lie about everything else.

Has the U.S. Economy Hit Bottom?
Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Jul 25, 2009 - 08:52 AM

By: MISES

Frank Shostak writes: Most experts and commentators are of the view that the worst of the US recession may be over by year's end. My own prediction is for an illusory recovery of government-constructed economic indicators, but nothing more than that.

It is held by most experts that a recession is typically set in motion by various unpredictable shocks. For instance, it is argued that the present recession was triggered by the crisis in the real estate market. Since, as a rule, various shocks tend to weaken consumer demand, it is the role of the central bank and the government to replace this shortfall in demand by boosting monetary pumping and government outlays. Thus, the central bank and the government counter the effects of various negative shocks by means of monetary and fiscal stimulus policies.

The monetary and fiscal stimulus is aimed at boosting overall expenditure in the economy, which (it is believed) is the key for economic growth. On this logic, spending by one individual becomes the income for another.

Following this way of thinking, since September 2007 the US central bank has aggressively lowered its interest rates. The federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% in August 2007 to almost zero at present. The yearly rate of growth of the Fed's balance sheet (that is, the pace of monetary pumping) jumped from 4% in September 2007 to 152% by December 2008. ( know more at )

Martial Law and the Militarization of

Public Health: The Worldwide

H1N1 Flu Vaccination Program
By Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, July 26, 2009

"The flu season is upon us. Which type will we worry about this year, and what kind of shots will we be told to take? Remember the swine flu scare of 1976? That was the year the U.S. government told us all that swine flu could turn out to be a killer that could spread across the nation, and Washington decided that every man, woman and child in the nation should get a shot to prevent a nation-wide outbreak, a pandemic." (Mike Wallace, CBS, 60 Minutes, November 4, 1979)
"The federal officials and industry representatives had assembled to discuss a disturbing new study that raised alarming questions about the safety of a host of common childhood vaccines administered to infants and young children. According to a CDC epidemiologist named Tom Verstraeten, who had analyzed the agency's massive database containing the medical records of 100,000 children, a mercury-based preservative in the vaccines -- thimerosal -- appeared to be responsible for a dramatic increase in autism and a host of other neurological disorders among children....
"It's hard to calculate the damage to our country -- and to the international efforts to eradicate epidemic diseases -- if Third World nations come to believe that America's most heralded foreign-aid initiative is poisoning their children. It's not difficult to predict how this scenario will be interpreted by America's enemies abroad." (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vaccinations: Deadly Immunity, June 2005) ( learn more at )

.

More bad news from Citi group again.

Why is the Gov. the largest stock holder

of Citi group? Because Citi group was

BANKRUPT

_

U.S. becomes Citigroup's biggest shareholder

Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:31pm EDT
By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - One hundred ninety-seven years, one month and 14 days after its founding, Citigroup Inc has given a roughly 34 percent stake to U.S. taxpayers.

While a few technical details still remain, the bank has completed a months-long effort to convert preferred shares held by the U.S. government into common stock. Citigroup on Thursday completed two exchange offers to bolster the capital position of the nation's third-biggest bank, widely considered the most troubled large U.S. lender.

Public investors, private investors and the government swapped close to $58 billion of preferred securities into common stock of the New York-based bank.
Citigroup has said the swaps would leave it with more than 21 billion shares, up from 5.51 billion at the end of June.

The $25 billion swapped by the government is part of its $45 billion infusion from the federal bank bailout plan, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Another $20 billion of that sum will remain in the form of preferred shares, throwing off an 8 percent annual dividend.

The higher government stake could add to pressure on Chief Executive Vikram Pandit to improve performance and shed unwanted or toxic assets.
Citigroup has also overhauled upper management and added seven new directors this year.

Earlier Thursday, Citigroup said it will sell a 64 percent stake in Japan's Nikko Asset Management Co to Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co for 75.6 billion yen ($790 million). Speaking in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Pandit said the bank is moving "extremely fast" on asset sales.

Citigroup agreed to the exchange offers in February as part of a government bailout, following $37.5 billion of losses over the previous five quarters.
The swaps were originally expected to total $52.5 billion. They grew to $58 billion after regulators ordered Citigroup to build a buffer following a "stress test" of its finances.

Citigroup said the swaps will make it one of the world's best-capitalized banks, with about $100 billion of tangible common equity.
Other large Citigroup investors include several sovereign wealth funds, and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

The bank's roots date to when City Bank of New York opened on June 16, 1812, with $2 million of authorized capital.

Citigroup itself was created on October 8, 1998 through the merger of Travelers Group Inc and Citicorp. Shares of Citigroup fell 4 cents to $3.18 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
($1 = 95.7 Japanese yen)

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Additional reporting by Soo Ai Peng in Kuala Lumpur, and Chikafumi Hodo and David Dolan in Tokyo, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

Comparing 2008 Jobless claims to 2009

No jobs, no buying no recovery simple

5/2008

7/2009

The numbers say it all

No jobs, no buying, no buying no jobs

and so it goes

5/28/09

_

7/29/2009

The news from Japan

Japan factory output logs sharpest rise in 56 yrs (AFP)

Japan's factories ramped up their production at the fastest pace in 56 years in the second quarter, data showed Thursday, boosting hopes the world's number two economy has returned to positive growth. Japanese industrial output plunged last year in the midst of a brutal global economic downturn, pushing Asia's biggest economy into its worst recession since World War II, but analysts say the worst appears to be over. ( This is complete bullsh*t I know I live in Japan. Nothing is ramping up. This is just wrong, positive and misleading economic propaganda.

Economic white paper short on specifics
The Yomiuri Shimbun

The theme of the fiscal 2009 Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance was "overcoming crisis and the outlook for sustainable recovery."
Although the country's economy has stopped deteriorating, it is still in a deep rut, and there are lingering concerns that it could worsen further still.
The white paper on the economy and public finances was drawn up in the middle of a dire economic situation. As such, it was expected to present a clear remedy for the Japanese economy that would guide it through the crisis and help it regain its growth potential.
The white paper said that although the country's economy slumped at the fastest pace on record, and that the extent of the slowdown also was the deepest ever, it finally began picking up thanks to the government's pump-priming measures and the recovery of foreign economies.
But the report pointed to three continuing risks in the economic outlook--the deteriorating employment situation, the risk of backsliding into deflation and a downturn in foreign economies.

Jul 30 Worker excess worrisome (Japan Times)

The government's fiscal 2009 white paper on the economy has drawn a gloomy picture with regard to the employment situation, although the report does credit the government's four economic stimulus measures for starting to exert a positive effect.

Jul 29 IMF begins borrowing from Japan, Canada, Norway (nasdaq.com)

The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday it has begun drawing on loans offered to it by the governments of Japan, Canada and Norway. The move marks the first time the Fund has borrowed from member countries using bilateral borrowing agreements. Jul 28 Ratio of vacancies to all houses in Japan hits record 13.1% (Mainichi) The ratio of vacant houses to all the dwellings in Japan hit an all-time high of 13.1 percent as of last Oct. 1, surpassing the previous record of 12.2 percent in 2003, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a preliminary report released Tuesday. This means nearly one out of every eight houses in Japan is vacant.

Jul 28 Bonuses for Japan national servants to be cut further (Mainichi)

Japan's national civil servants are expected to see their bonuses cut further for the current fiscal year to next March after a reduction in their summer bonuses, sources at the National Personnel Authority said Tuesday. The authority is making the latest move after slashing summer bonuses for civil servants by 0.2 month worth of salary based on a May proposal made as the country's economy has been mired in recession.

Jul 28 No change in minimum wage in regions with no livelihood assistance gap (Mainichi)

The Minimum Wage Council, an advisory body to the Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, said that the minimum wage will be "maintained at its current level" in 35 prefectures where there is no gap between public livelihood assistance and the minimum wage.

75% Americans in Favor

of Auditing The Fed

_

Here's some genuinely good news for a change. A new Rasmussen poll shows 75% Favor Auditing The Fed.
So much for the ongoing secrecy of the nation’s independent central banking system. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 75% of Americans favor auditing the Federal Reserve and making the results available to the public.

Just nine percent (9%) of adults think that’s a bad idea and oppose it. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure. Over half the members of the House now support a bill giving the Government Accounting Office, Congress’ investigative agency, the authorization to audit the books of the Federal Reserve Board.

While the president hopes to expand the Fed chairman’s regulatory controls, 46% of Americans say he already has too much power over the economy.

Fifty-one percent (51%) oppose expanding the Fed’s regulatory powers.

Despite Bernanke’s pledge that the Fed will keep interest rates and inflation down, 54% of Americans think interest rates will be higher a year from now, up 20 points from April.

Perhaps helping to drive the support for regularly auditing the Fed is the growing unpopularity of Obama’s economic initiatives to date. While the Fed is an independent agency, just 20% of Americans believe the Fed chairman is truly independent of the Obama administration. Sixty percent (60%) say his decision-making is influence by the president.
Turn up the heat. Call your legislative representative again tomorrow and tell them you favor auditing the Fed, then getting rid of it.

Please see Speak Out - Audit the Fed, Then End It! for Fax numbers. You can also get Phone, Fax, and Email numbers from the Online Directory for the 111th Congress.

America military on your streets

_

Military Poised to Help FEMA

Battle Swine Flu Outbreak

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted to set vaccination priorities for certain groups Wednesday during a meeting in Atlanta as the Pentagon prepares to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency tackle a potential outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall.

The Pentagon is preparing to make troops available if necessary to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency tackle a potential outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, FOX News has confirmed.
This comes as a government panel recommends certain groups be placed at the front of the line for swine flu vaccinations this fall, including pregnant women, health care workers and children six months and older.
The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices panel also said those first vaccinated should include parents and other caregivers of infants; non-elderly adults who have high-risk medical conditions, and young adults ages 19 to 24. The panel, whose recommendations typically are adopted by federal health officials, voted to set vaccination priorities for those groups Wednesday during a meeting in Atlanta.
Obama administration officials told Congress that H1N1 vaccinations won't be available for several months.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is preparing to sign an order authorizing the military to set up five regional teams to deal with the potential outbreak of H1N1 influenza if FEMA requests help.
A senior U.S. defense official told FOX News that the plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the FEMA. No final decision has been reached on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it likely would include personnel from all branches of the military.
It is not known how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.
In the event of a major outbreak, civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts, the official said. The military, as it would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.
As a first step, military leaders have asked Gates to authorize planning for the potential assistance.
Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said.
FOX News' Jennifer Griffin, Brian Wilson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Military planning for possible H1N1 outbreak
Military wants to establish regional teams to help civilian authorities respond
Proposal awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates
Military could provide support such as air transport, large-scale testing
From Barbara Starr
CNN Pentagon Correspondent

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. military wants to establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials.

The proposal is awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The officials would not be identified because the proposal from U.S. Northern Command's Gen. Victor Renuart has not been approved by the secretary.

The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There is no final decision on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it would likely include personnel from all branches of the military.

It has yet to be determined how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.

Civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts in the event of a major outbreak, the official said. The military, as they would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.

As a first step, Gates is being asked to sign a so-called "execution order" that would authorize the military to begin to conduct the detailed planning to execute the proposed plan.
Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said.

All AboutSwine Flu • Military and Defense Policy • Robert Gates

Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy

BusinessWeek has an interesting cover story this week about The Leaner Baby Boomer Economy.

Calling Mercedes the "the quintessential boomer brand", BusinessWeek estimates that Mercedes will sell a third fewer cars in America. The article also notes efforts by companies like Nordstrom (JWN), Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT), Outback Steakhouse, BMW and Target (TGT) to offer value shopping or "cheap chic" in an effort to reach out to generations X and Y.

By now most are familiar with this new wave of frugality. Thus the real story is not article itself but the is the easy to miss sidebar statistics as follows:

$400 Billion: Amount that will come out of annual U.S. consumption as thrifty boomers push savings rate from 1% to nearly 5%.

47%: Boomers share of national disposable income in 2005 before the bubble burst. Boomers contributed only 7% to national savings.

2.4%: Forecasted GDP growth over the next three decades as boomers ratchet back. GDP has grown 3.2% a year since 1965.

69%: Portion of boomers aged 54 to 63 who are financially unprepared for retirement.

78%: Boomers' share of GDP growth during the bubble years of 1995 to 2005

Those stats are from a McKinsey study, and there is nothing remotely inflationary about any of them.

In his Town Hall Meetings Bernanke said:

"It takes GDP growth of about 2.5 percent to keep the jobless rate constant. But the Fed expects growth of only about 1 percent in the last six months of the year. So that's not enough to bring down the unemployment rate."

Inquiring minds might be asking: Why does it take 2.5% growth to keep the jobless rate constant? The answer is the first 2.5%+- of GDP is based on hedonics and imputations. In plain English, the first 2.5%+- of GDP (if not much more) is fictional. When the economy is growing at 2% it feels like a recession because it probably is, even though no one will admit it.

Now consider the implications of a 2.4% GDP forecast for three decades.

If Bernanke is correct that it takes 2.5% GDP growth just to keep the unemployment rate constant, and McKinsey is also correct in its 2.4% forecast, we will be stuck with 10% unemployment for decades.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Military & H1N1 News report

Is CITIGROUP OK?

On June 1, 2009, it was announced that Citigroup Inc. would be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average effective June 8, 2009 due to significant government ownership. Citigroup Inc. was replaced by Insurer Travelers Co.

Citi public exchange offer gets 99 percent shares

Mon Jul 27, 2009 6:48am EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) -

Citigroup Inc said on Sunday some 99 percent of its stock was tendered in an exchange offer for publicly held securities, in a key step toward giving the U.S. government a 34 percent equity stake in the bank.
Citigroup said preliminary results showed about $20.3 billion worth of publicly held convertible and nonconvertible preferred and trust preferred securities were tendered in the exchange offer.
The bank will issue 5.83 billion common shares to the public exchange offer participants, it said. The exchange offer expired at 5 p.m. New York time on Friday.
The New York-based lender has been conducting a series of exchange offers on $58 billion of securities, as part of a federal bailout designed to bolster the bank's capital.
Public and private investors are exchanging up to $33 billion of securities for common stock, while the government is exchanging up to $25 billion of its own securities.

Citigroup is conducting the exchange offers after heavy losses led to a series of federal bailouts, including $45 billion of taxpayer money, for the third-largest U.S. bank.
The bank is the most troubled of the nation's largest lenders, after credit losses and writedowns led to $37.5 billion of net losses in the 15 months ended in December.( know more at )

Federal bailout 2008

On 24 November 2008 the U.S. government announced a massive bailout of Citigroup, designed to rescue the company from bankruptcy while giving the government a major say in its operations. The Treasury will provide another $20 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds in addition to $25 billion given in October. The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will cover 90% of the losses on its $335-billion portfolio after Citigroup absorbs the first $29 billion in losses.[44] In return the bank will give Washington $27 billion of preferred shares and warrants to acquire stock. The government will obtain wide powers over banking operations. Citigroup has agreed to try to modify mortgages, using standards set up by the FDIC after the collapse of IndyMac Bank, with the goal of keeping as many homeowners as possible in their houses. Executive salaries will be capped.[45]
As a condition of the bailout, Citigroup's dividend payment has been reduced to a mere 1 cent a share.
As the subprime mortgage crisis began to unfold, heavy exposure to toxic mortgages in the forms of Collateralized debt obligation (CDOs), compounded by poor risk management led the company into serious trouble. In early 2007 Citigroup began eliminating about 5 percent of its workforce, in a broad restructuring designed to cut costs and bolster its long underperforming stock.[15] By November 2008, the ongoing crisis hit Citigroup hard and despite federal TARP bailout money, the company announced further cuts.[17] Its stock market value dropped to $6 billion, down from $244 billion two years prior.[18] As a result, Citigroup and Federal regulators negotiated a plan to stabilize the company.[4] Its single largest shareholder is Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia, who has a 4.9% stake.[46] Vikram Pandit is Citigroup's current CEO, while Richard Parsons is the current chairman.[35]
[edit]Political donations
Citigroup is the 16th largest political campaign contributor, out of all organizations, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. According to Matthew Vadum, a senior editor at the conservative Capital Research Center, Citigroup is also a heavy contributor to left-of-center political causes.[47] However, members of the firm have donated over $23,033,490 from 1989-2006, 49% of which went to Democrats and 51% of which went to Republicans.[48]

Terra Securities scandal

In November 2007 it became public that the Citigroup is heavily involved in the Terra Securities scandal, which involved investments by eight municipalities of Norway in various hedge funds in the United States bond market.[41] The funds were sold by Terra Securities ASA to the municipalities, while the products were delivered by Citigroup. Terra Securities ASA filed for bankruptcy November 28, 2007, the day after they received a letter[42] from The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway announcing withdrawal of permissions to operate. The same letter also stated, "The Supervisory Authority contends that Citigroup's presentation, as well as the presentation from Terra Securities ASA, appears insufficient and misleading because central elements like information about potential extra payments and the size of these are omitted."
[edit]Theft from customer accounts
On August 26, 2008 it was announced that Citigroup agreed to pay nearly $18 million in refunds and fines to settle accusations by California Attorney General Jerry Brown that it wrongly took funds from the accounts of credit card customers. Citigroup would pay $14 million of restitution to roughly 53,000 customers nationwide. A three-year investigation found that Citigroup from 1992 to 2003 used an improper computerized "sweep" feature to move positive balances from card accounts into the bank's general fund, without telling cardholders.[43]
Brown said in a statement that Citigroup "knowingly stole from its customers, mostly poor people and the recently deceased, when it designed and implemented the sweeps...When a whistleblower uncovered the scam and brought it to his superiors, they buried the information and continued the illegal practice."[43]

It Ain’t Over Until

the Jobs Come

Back — Period!

Carl F. Worden Fourwinds10July 26, 2009

So I’m watching these talking heads on CNBC telling America that the signs of a recovery are there. They are lying and not just merely misled. They are flat lying, hoping some suckers out there will start making purchases to jump-start America’s consumer-driven engine, and to a small degree it is working. All I can tell you is this: When your money is spent, it is GONE, okay? If there is not a corresponding and reliable, ongoing source of income to offset your purchases, don’t make the purchases. Is there anyone, outside of Jackson County, Oregon, the stupidest county in all the Universe, that does not understand this concept? (Jackson County, Oregon has about 210,000 residents, and they maintain something like 13-15 library branches to keep a bunch of otherwise needless people employed on the taxpayers’ dime. The residents of Jackson County largely think this is a great idea, yet the population in general is terribly uneducated and has nothing to show for all the libraries. Yes, they really are intensely stupid here!)
Unless and until the U.S. Jobs Report begins to list positive job gains, this recession/depression is not over, and I don’t care what any alleged financial expert has to say otherwise.
Once again, I am going to point out that this whole mess did NOT start with Bush 43 and his undeclared war. That was merely an exacerbation of this economic mess that started with President Bill Clinton signing onto the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Trade And Tariffs (GATT) — against his Democratic Party lobby. NAFTA and GATT were, hands down and indisputable, the most heinous acts of treason ever committed against the citizens of the United States, and not a shot needed to be fired to accomplish it.
NAFTA and GATT virtually eliminated the trade protections we had to preserve our exceptionally high standard of living. We are a nation of just 310 million people who once enjoyed a standard of living that was the envy of all the world. We have now been thrown into a global economic cauldron that makes our ability to compete for wealth creation “equal” with the rest of the world, even though we had all the natural resources and form of government that made us able to out-perform every other nation on the planet. ( Know more at )

Yearly increase in home sales

being falsely sold, as Recovery

Every year in June, July and August house sales spike. This is not a recovery this is the year spike in house sales. Look at the table.

The trend line says it all. Down, down, down.

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) Speech

Voice Recognition Speech recognition (also referred to as voice recognition) is a process by which the elements of spoken language can be recognized and analyzed, and the linguistic message it contains transposed into a meaningful form so that a machine can respond correctly to spoken commands. Voice recognition is distinct from voice identification, which is the capability to identify a specific individual by comparing unknown recorded voices to known voice exemplars to identify similar and dissimilar characteristics.
The "holy grail" of ASR research is to allow a computer to recognize in real-time with 100% accuracy all words that are intelligibly spoken by any person, independent of vocabulary size, noise, speaker characteristics and accent, or channel conditions. Despite several decades of research in this area, accuracy greater than 90% is only attained in commercial when the task is constrained in some way.
Different levels of performance can be attained by unclassified systems. Recognition of continuous digits over a microphone channel (small vocabulary, no noise) can be greater than 99%. If the system is trained to learn an individual speaker's voice, then much larger vocabularies are possible, although accuracy drops to somewhere between 90% and 95% for commercially-available systems. For large-vocabulary speech recognition of different speakers over different channels, accuracy n commercial systems is less than 90%, and processing can take hundreds of times real-time. Automatic Speech Recognition History
The earliest attempts to devise systems for automatic speech recognition by machine were made in the 1950s. Much of the early research leading to the development of speech activation and recognition technology was funded by NSA, NSF and the Defense Department's DARPA. Much of the initial research, performed with NSA and NSF funding, was conducted in the 1980s.
Kurzweil was founded in 1982 and proposed to use its experience, industry knowledge, and market presence to leverage the production of the interface. In 1985, the company had introduced Kurzweil Voice System, the first 1,000-word discrete-speech recognizer. This interface, adaptable to many applications, allowed the user to control the application by voice without modifying the operating system or software. In 1987, Kurzweil introduced the first 20,000-word discrete-speech recognizer, which was incorporated into Kurzweil Voice Report software and allowed users to create structured reports by voice. ( know more at )

Pandemic Headlines

Swine Flu Cases In Kazakhstan RFE/RL 27 Jul 2009

Russian swine flu cases rise to 18 RIA Novosti 27 Jul 2009

WHO Says Swine-Flu Virus Could Infect 2 Billion VOA 25 Jul 2009

WHO: Death toll from influenza outbreak nears 800 UN News 24 Jul 2009

WHO: Swine Flu Spreads Around the World VOA 24 Jul 2009

Australia's Aborigines Bracing for Swine Flu Onslaught VOA 24 Jul 2009

Arab Health Ministers: Age Limits on Hajj to Limit Flu VOA 23 Jul 2009

WHO Says Global Swine Flu Deaths Exceed 700 VOA 21 Jul 2009

Britain Mulls Closing Schools to Curb Swine Flu VOA 21 Jul 2009

MIDDLE EAST: First swine flu death in Egypt IRIN 20 Jul 2009

Russia may have 3 more swine flu cases RIA Novosti 18 Jul 2009

Russia registers 10th confirmed swine flu case RIA Novosti 18 Jul 2009

US Designates $1.8 Billion for Swine Flu Prevention VOA 16 Jul 2009

Thailand Puts Flu Cooperation on ASEAN Agenda VOA 16 Jul 2009

Innovation key to ensuring adequate vaccines for all UN News Centre 14 Jul 2009

WEST AFRICA: Region still unprepared for pandemic flu IRIN 14 Jul 2009

WHO recommendations on pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccines UN WHO 13 Jul 2009

SOUTH AFRICA: Swine flu cases more than known IRIN 13 Jul 2009

Middle East: Swine flu measures ahead of Hajj season IRIN 12 Jul 2009

US Braced for H1N1 Swine Flu Return VOA 11 Jul 2009

Air Force Academy officials responding to flu cases AFNS 10 Jul 2009

Southern Africa : Swine flu begins to spread IRIN 10 Jul 2009

Viruses resistant to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) identified UN WHO 08 Jul 2009

UN SecGen: $1 Billion Needed to Fight Swine Flu VOA 06 Jul 2009

Breaking News

Europe fast-tracking swine flu vaccine

By MARIA CHENG, AP Medical

LONDON – 18 minutes ago

In a drive to inoculate people against swine flu before winter, many European governments say they will fast-track the testing of a new flu vaccine, arousing concern among some experts about safety issues and proper vaccine doses.
The European Medicines Agency, the EU's top drug regulatory body, is accelerating the approval process for swine flu vaccine, and countries such as Britain, Greece, France and Sweden say they'll start using the vaccine after it's greenlighted — possibly within weeks.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's flu chief, warned about the potential dangers of untested vaccines, although he stopped short of criticizing Europe's approach outright.
"One of the things which cannot be compromised is the safety of vaccines," he said Friday. "There are certain areas where you can make economies, perhaps, but certain areas where you simply do not try to make any economies."
Flu vaccines have been used for 40 years, and many experts say extensive testing is unnecessary, since the swine flu vaccine will simply contain a new ingredient: the swine flu virus.
But European officials won't know if the new vaccine causes any rare side effects until millions of people get the shots. Still, they say the benefit of saving lives is worth the gamble.
"Everybody is doing the best they can in a situation which is far from ideal," said Martin Harvey-Allchurch, a spokesman for the European Medicines Agency. "With the winter flu season approaching, we need to make sure the vaccine is available." ( know more at )

Court Rebukes Government Over “Secret Law”

Monday, July 20th, 2009

“Government must operate through public laws and regulations” and not through “secret law,” a federal appellate court declared in a decision last month. When our government attempts to do otherwise, the court said, it is emulating “totalitarian regimes.”
The new ruling (pdf) overturned the conviction of a defendant who had been found guilty of exporting rifle scopes in violation of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). The court said that the government had failed to properly identify which items are subject to export control regulations, or to justify the criteria for controlling them. It said the defendant could not be held responsible for violating such vague regulations.
Accepting the State Department’s claim of “authority to classify any item as a ‘defense article’ [thereby making it subject to export controls], without revealing the basis of the decision and without allowing any inquiry by the jury, would create serious constitutional problems,” wrote Chief Judge Frank H. Easterbrook of the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals. “It would allow the sort of secret law that [the Supreme Court in] Panama Refining Co. v. Ryan, 293 U.S. 388 (1935), condemned.”
Normally, “A regulation is published for all to see,” explained Judge Easterbrook, a Reagan appointee who is considered a judicial conservative. “People can adjust their conduct to avoid liability. [In contrast,] a designation by an unnamed official, using unspecified criteria, that is put in a desk drawer, taken out only for use at a criminal trial, and immune from any evaluation by the judiciary, is the sort of tactic usually associated with totalitarian regimes,” he said. See the Court’s ruling in United States of America v. Doli Syarief Pulungan, June 15, 2009.
The new ruling “could be a very big deal in terms of export controls, and indeed in terms of ’secret law’ in general,” said Gerald Epstein, a science and security policy scholar who served on a recent National Academy of Sciences panel on export control policy. “This case goes to the heart of the ambiguity of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, which give the State Department great latitude in determining what is and what is not covered, and which are administered in a notoriously opaque way,” Dr. Epstein told Secrecy News.
Export control policy was addressed from various perspectives in an April 24, 2008 Senate hearing entitled “Beyond Control: Reforming Export Licensing Agencies for National Security and Economic Interests” that was published last month.
Last year, Sen. Russ Feingold convened a hearing on the subject of “Secret Law and the Threat to Democratic and Accountable Government.” My prepared statement from that hearing on the diverse categories of secret law is available here ( Know more at ).

NSA Call Data Channel (CDC) Monitoring

On 11 May 2006 USA Today reported that the National Security Agency had secretly collected the phone call records of millions of Americans, using data from three of the nation's biggest phone service providers. The National Security Agency used information provided by AT&T, Verizon and BellSouth, which were reported to be working under contract with the NSA. The three companies provide local and wireless phone service to more than 200 million customers in the US.
The newspaper said it learned from sources familiar with the program that the NSA does not listen or record actual phone conversations, but uses the data to analyze the calling patterns of ordinary Americans in order to detect possible terrorist activities. Under Section 222 of the U.S. Communications Act passed in 1934 and amended in 1996, telephone companies are prohibited from giving out information regarding their customers' calling habits.
The law around wiretaps has grown up around a legal distinction between Content and Identifying Information with a legal history based in the postal system. The outside of a letter identifies the recipient, the sender, the place where the letter was posted and the time. Obtaining this “Identification” information requires a lower legal standard than the “Content” of the mail – the letter inside the envelope.
In March 2004 the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) and the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) jointly published the TIA Standard/ATIS Committee T1 Trial Use Standard, "Lawfully Authorized Electronic Surveillance" J-STD-025-B. This standard defines the interfaces between a telecommunications service provider (TSP) and a law enforcement agency (LEA) to assist the LEA in conducting lawfully authorized electronic surveillance. The purpose of this standard is to facilitate a TSP's compliance with the assistance capability requirements defined in Section 103 of the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA).
J-STD-025-B defines services and features to support Lawfully Authorized Electronic Surveillance (LAES) and the interfaces to deliver intercepted communications and communication-identifying information to an LEA when authorized. The document also defines a protocol for delivering specific information elements to LEAs. Compliance with this standard satisfies the "safe harbor" provisions of Section 107 of CALEA and helps ensure efficient and industry-wide implementation of the assistance capability requirements. ( know more at )

NSA Activities

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
The Fourth Amendment enshrines warrant requirement that the American colonists demanded from the Framers, following their experience with British occupation. That starting point may seem like a quaint vestige from a far-away past, but when that vestige is translated into abuses of enforcement officers, then the right of all Americans to be protected from arbitrary and unfounded invasions becomes much more than a historical remembrance. The framers of the Fourth Amendment placed a check on the unfettered authority of the state, without probable cause, to conduct a search that had not been tied to the likely commission of a crime. Without the requirement that a search have a nexus to both criminal conduct and to an external authority (judge or magistrate), a soldier, a federal agent, or a policeman, could take unto himself the right to execute what was called in the colonies a "general warrant", which permitted a search of a home for "whatever" evidence that might be found.
The National Security Agency used computers to help monitor all international phone calls and e-mails of Americans in carrying out President Bush's orders to detect Al Qaeda sleeper cells. Computers would automatically search for key words and phrases, as well as other signatures possibly associated with sleeper cells. As part of the statistical analysis, computers would create records that compiled profiles of US persons. All of this activity was under way long before September 11th, with the exception of the creation of records on US persons.
NSA's domestic spying program depends on the cooperation of the nation's telecom companies. A court warrant is almost always required to monitor communications. But under the secret surveillance program authorized by the President, the National Security Agency bypassed the courts to tap telephone calls and intercept e-mails to and from the United States. ( know more at )

(Bush)Old ass*ole same as

the (Obama) new ass*ole

Spying on the American people

( people wake up )

President Bush said that the eavesdropping was legal and said it would continue. "I have the authority, both from the Constitution and the Congress, to undertake this vital program," he said. "The American people expect me to protect their lives and their civil liberties, and that's exactly what we're doing with this program. I'll continue to reauthorize this program for so long as our country faces a continuing threat from al-Qaida and related groups."

Towards a Global Currency?

Towards the integration of

the Dollar and the Euro?
By Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, July 20, 2009

With a view to restoring financial stability, World leaders have called upon the Group of 20 countries (G-20) to instigate a new global currency based on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
The media has presented the global currency initiative as a consensus building process, in which BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would participate in the revamping of the international monetary system.
Russia and China have put forth "proposals" which have been highlighted as possible alternatives to the dollar. China has proposed the formation of a new global currency based on a reform of SDR system:
"It is a feasible plan to reform the present SDR and make it into a real settlement currency, a universally accepted 'currency basket' that would replace the dollar at the heart of the monetary system," (Li Ruogu, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, Reuters, 6 July 2009)
China's proposal does not imply a major shift in global banking arrangements, nor does it open up a window of debate regarding monetary reform.
On the other hand, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has explicitly questioned the composition of the SDR basket and has called upon the IMF "to expand the currency basket of SDRs to include the Chinese yuan, commodity currencies and gold in order that it matures into a reserve currency."
Geopolitics
Global Geopolitics bears a relationship to the international monetary system. Control over money creation is an instrument of economic conquest.
The invasion and occupation of Iraq was to exclude rival Russian and Chinese interests from the Middle-East and Central Asian oil fields.
The reform of the international monetary system is a project of the dominant financial elites, which is discussed behind closed doors. It is unlikely that Russia and China, which in large part remain subordinate to Western banking interests, will perform a significant role in central banking functions at a global level.
Moreover, this initiative occurs at a time of East West confrontation, amidst veiled US-NATO threats directed against Russia as well China. The establishment of a new global currency and central banking system is an instrument of global economic domination which is intimately related to the broader US-NATO military agenda. ( know more at )