The International Forecaster

This So Called Recovery Is Going Nowhere
August 12 2009

Summary: trillions more dollars in bailout to keep the bubble alive, Inflation guaranteed for Asia, Stock Market is again highly leveraged, Trillions in more injections wont work, No way to reverse this reversal of fortune for the economy, Developed nations seen as having dug their own graves, Saga of Pat Kiley

The Fed’s Wall Street bubble, as we forecast in January, will need at least $2 trillion more in 2010, if the economy is to just stay on an even keel. The massive debt liquidation particularly in banking, Wall Street and in insurance demands many more trillions of dollars. $23.4 trillion is not going to be enough. Presently the Fed is in the process of monetizing $2 trillion in Treasuries, Agency paper, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and collateralized debt obligations held by lenders. It is a secret what the Fed is paying for this almost worthless paper. Is it any wonder the public has lost trust and confidence in these players and our government?
In order to escape from this global expansion of debt from government, corporations, banking, Wall Street and even state indebtedness, the bubble has to be maintained. The longer it lasts the worse will be the collapse when it bursts. Does anyone really believe that this can continue indefinitely?
People talk about robust inflationary environments in China, Asia and emerging markets In America the Fed’s game of lowering interest rates and increasing money and credit and monetizing paper will end over the next two years, maybe three. What is already in the system guarantees inflation.
Many believe American re-flation boosts real estate values. Not a chance. The recovery is not going anywhere. Americans are starting to save and pay down debt, and that means eventually consumption, as a percentage of GDP will fall to the long-term mean of 64.5%.
The stock market and major market players are again highly leveraged even after 50% gains. They do not seem to understand that the sustained injection of trillions of dollars in money and credit is not going to work. It is not creating anything. Wild speculation is fine; it’s the leverage that kills. As a broker I never had a margin account. The market is not discounting a rosy future, but the players do not understand that. Prices are simply disconnected from reality. Short covering and the reversal of derivative positions cannot go on indefinitely. Market performance is led by second and third tier companies that are in serious positions, some on the edge of bankruptcy. This is a very frustrating but temporary phenomenon. You are short failing companies, and good companies languish. This is one of the unpredictable parts of the market. All we can say is that current stock market action is a reflection of the current dysfunctional financial chaos that we are trapped in. Mis-pricing is legion. All we can say is it is not going to work. Your only alternative is to back in the safety of gold and silver related assets.
The same elements that were responsible for the collapse of the market in 2000 are at work today. Incidentally we recommended selling in the second week of April, two weeks after the top. Only 2% of analysts accompanied us. Then again, we called the top at 14,100. That element was interest rate carry trades. The players are taking advantage of the ability to borrow cheap dollars, yen and euros to buy other higher yielding currencies, which in turn strengthens their currencies, making their exports uncompetitive. South Africa and Turkey are such examples. Thus, currency appreciation caused by differing interest rates is reigniting third world countries. Free trade and globalization are having some unintended consequences. The dollar is headed down and at the G-20 meeting in London on September 4-5; the US will ask China and others to cut it more slack, because they can ( Learn more at )